China job market trends: What slower growth means for expats

China’s services sector cools and unemployment remains moderate, but youth joblessness and structural shifts complicate the outlook. Here’s how the latest data on China’s job market trends affect expats and job seekers.

China job market trends: Services slowdown and a fragile recovery

As of December 2025, China’s job market shows mixed signals. A private survey by RatingDog shows the General Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 52.1 in November, its lowest reading since June. The index is still above 50, which means the economy is growing. But it has fallen, showing that new orders are weaker and company profits are under pressure.

The government’s own services PMI also showed a warning sign, dropping to 49.5 and pointing to a slowdown for the first time since late 2022. New export orders grew again after October’s drop, but overall the Chinese economy is still losing speed.

Employment signs are worrying. The services survey shows companies have cut jobs for four months in a row. Higher costs for fuel and materials made many firms raise prices, which squeezed their profits. Business leaders are still hopeful, but their confidence is the weakest it has been since April.

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What the PMI tells us

• General Services PMI: 52.1 in November (down from 52.6)
• Official services PMI: 49.5, sliding into contraction
• New orders: Growth slowed to a five‑month low
• Employment: Sector shed jobs for four consecutive months
• Composite Output Index: 51.2, down from 51.8

Employment statistics: stability hides deeper issues

Despite the services slowdown, official unemployment data remained moderate. Xinhua reports that China’s surveyed urban unemployment rate stood at 5.1 % in October, down from 5.2 % in September. The rate for rural migrant workers was even lower at 4.5 %, highlighting resilience among mobile labour.

In the first nine months of 2025, China created 10.57 million new urban jobs, reaching 88% of its yearly goal. Officials say the job market is still mostly stable, even with pressure from the global economy.

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But these top-line numbers hide some big problems. Youth unemployment has climbed back to 18.9% in August 2025, the highest level since China changed how it counts young job seekers in 2023.

One big problem is that many graduates don’t have the skills that match the jobs on offer. Low-skilled workers are also at risk. Many lost their jobs because of the weak property market and factories moving overseas, and now they depend on gig work to get by.

Job‑postings data underscore the tightness of the market. One major recruitment site reported that advertised positions for college graduates fell 22 % in the first half of 2025. While policymakers aim to keep the urban unemployment rate around 5.5 %, meeting this goal will depend on sustained economic growth and successful absorption of new graduates.

AI and structural changes

China’s “AI+” plan, announced in August 2025, aims for most businesses to use AI by 2027. Experts say Beijing knows AI could cut some jobs and is trying to bring it in slowly to avoid social problems.

Still, beginners in office jobs and people who do simple manual work are most at risk from automation. Early studies in the United States show that young workers in jobs heavily affected by AI are losing work, which suggests China could face similar problems.

The government has also made stricter rules for tutoring, tech and real estate. That has cut jobs in these fields and pushed more people into gig work. Without better benefits and job protections, many gig workers may be stuck in low-paid and unstable jobs.

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Outlook for 2026 and guidance for expats

Economists expect China’s job market to remain under pressure in early 2026. Services growth is likely to stabilise but not accelerate without substantial stimulus. Government targets for 12 million new urban jobs may be achievable, but only if overall economic growth improves and graduates find pathways into emerging industries.

For expats, the picture is mixed. Many global companies still hire in tech, green energy and business services, and government jobs are fairly steady. Networking matters a lot: events and groups in your industry can help you find jobs that are not advertised.

Understanding work‑permit rules, mandatory social insurance and employment rights is essential. Our guides on employment rights, unemployment benefits and networking & professional growth provide practical advice.

Tips for job‑seeking expats

• Focus on growth sectors: Technology, green energy and advanced manufacturing continue to attract investment.
• Build local networks: Join professional groups and attend job fairs to access unadvertised roles.
• Understand visa rules: Ensure your employer sponsors the correct work permit and residence permit.
• Prepare for competition: High youth unemployment means more applicants for each vacancy; tailor your CV to highlight specialised skills.
• Stay adaptable: Be open to contract or project work as the market recovers.

Why this matters to expats

• Moderate unemployment, hidden risks: A 5% jobless rate hides high youth unemployment and big differences between industries.
• Changing hiring landscape: AI adoption and policy shifts are reshaping the types of jobs available.
• Need for social protection: Gig work offers flexibility but often lacks benefits; understanding unemployment insurance is critical.
• Opportunities in niches: Expanding sectors still seek foreign expertise; those with specialised skills remain competitive.